Are renewables compatible with the market?

This is an assignment I wrote for my Power Systems Engineering 5 course which I believe is particularly relevant and should be open to a wider audience.

Question

The essay should start from describing how development of renewables (wind, marine, solar, biomass, etc) is encouraged in different countries.  Based on that analysis, you should try and answer the following question: can renewables at all be made compatible with electricity markets without granting them special support?  What would be necessary to achieve that?

Abstract

This essay discusses whether renewables are compatible with the market by first outlining the different economic support systems in effect in the UK, Europe and America.  A discussion is given of both Renewables Obligation quotas and Fixed Feed-In Tariff systems.  The unique Californian Participating Intermittent Resource program is discussed as it is an important example of near-market compatibility.  The generation cost in p/kWh for a selection of technologies is given as a market compatibility metric.  Estimates are then given of the remaining fossil fuel resources.  This is followed by a discussion of the effects of the finite supply of fossil fuels on the compatibility of renewables.  A discussion of the competing effects of technological progress is then given.  This is followed by an examination of the effect of a ‘carbon tax’ as an indirect renewables incentive.  Finally, it is concluded that the fact that renewables are granted support suggests that they are not compatible with current energy markets.  However, due to the finite supply of fossil fuel resources, and exponential technological progress, renewables will not remain uncompetitive for ever.

Introduction

This essay discusses whether renewables are compatible with the market, and concludes that, generally, they are currently incompatible in the absence of special support, but that this condition is likely to change in the future.

In order to examine this conclusion, the market support granted to renewable generation is first outlined for a number of countries and technologies.  The question of whether renewables are currently compatible with the market is then discussed, followed by an analysis of whether this situation is likely to change.

Market Support for Renewables

Two main issues regarding market compatibility of renewables are discussed here.  The first is that renewables are not currently cost-competitive with conventional generators and this is what the British, European, and American renewable support systems are designed to address.  These are discussed first.  The second market compatibility issue is that renewables are uncontrollable (except large hydro) and this contributes to their cost-competitiveness as well as inhibits their participation in traditional electricity markets.  The Californian Participating Intermittent Resource Program hopes to address both of these market compatibility issues, and is therefore discussed last.  The issues of network reliability and the location of generation are not discussed in this essay.

In the United Kingdom, an incentive for renewable generation is created by OFGEM’s Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) [1].  The Renewables Obligation scheme has changed for this fiscal year and electricity suppliers are now mandated to provide a certain number of ROCs, rather than present evidence that a fixed percentage of their supply is met by renewable sources [2].  If electricity suppliers cannot meet their Renewables Obligation for a given fiscal year, they are required to ‘buy-out’ their MWh shortfall.  The total money in the ‘buy-out’ fund is then distributed proportionally among ROC holders.  For the 2007-2008 fiscal period a ROC was worth £52.95/MWh, an increase of £10.41 over its 2006-2007 value [1].  This value is what is made by a renewable generator over and above income from the electricity market.   Therefore, an effectively separate market for renewable energy is created under the ROC scheme and electricity suppliers are motivated to produce renewable electricity, rather than lose income by buying out their shortfall.

There are technology-specific premiums under the Renewables Obligation scheme.  For example, the relatively developed hydroelectric and onshore wind technologies obtain one ROC per MWh, while relatively undeveloped technologies such as wave and geothermal, achieve two ROCs per MWh to greater encourage their development [3].  Hydroelectric stations constructed prior to 1990 are excluded from participation in the Renewable Obligation scheme [3].

The majority of other European countries provide economic support for renewable electricity using Fixed Feed-In Tariff (FFIT) systems that are mostly based on the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) [4-6].  FFITs guarantee the price at which renewable electricity is sold to the grid and mandate that the grid purchase this electricity for 15-30 years, depending on the technology [6].  These two factors significantly reduce the risk of investment in renewable energy.  In Germany, the FFIT system also offers different premiums according to the technology, maturity, and size of the renewable generating plant [6].  The tariffs awarded to each technology are reviewed yearly.  Recently, the tariffs for photovoltaic, geothermal and biomass have been increased to spur development and investment, and uniquely, the tariff paid to wind power generators has been reduced due to technological advancements and the increasing wind penetration level [6].  In contrast to the UK Renewables Obligation system, a separate renewables electricity market is not created under the FFIT scheme.

An interesting aspect of the EEG FFIT is that the tariffs granted for some renewable technologies reduce by a percentage every year [6].  The theory behind this tariff ‘degression’ is that it is hoped that reduced tariffs will spur the technological development of renewables by providing an incentive for cost-reduction.  Again, the degression rates are technology-specific and adjusted to reflect the maturity of the technology and the movement along the learning-curve [6].

Large hydroelectric plants (>500kW) were not supported by Germany’s EEG scheme prior to 2004 whereas there is currently a small premium to create an incentive to upgrade existing large hydro plants.  The support for micro-hydro generation (<500kW) has increased since the EEG was enacted [6].

In America, renewables are given incentives on a state-by-state basis, with some federal influence [7], due to the nature of the US political system.  The American system involves an amalgamation of FFIT, renewable credit quota systems, and assorted tax and loan incentives [8-10].  What is intriguing about the American approach is that some incentives are given on a regional and electric company basis, even within states [10].  The American schemes are also technology specific.  Special provision is made for Solar power systems in California which are paid a premium [10] due to their ability to follow maximum air conditioning load [11, 12].

Of the American methods for promoting the development of renewables, the unique Participating Intermittent Resource Program (PIRP), developed by California in 2004, is of particular interest [13-16].  The PIRP is a method of attempting to integrate intermittent energy sources, such as wind, into the existing hour- and day-ahead electricity markets, without excessive economic support.  The main problem of integrating intermittent energy sources into electricity markets is that any deviations (over- or under-generation) relative to the scheduled production results in harsh financial penalties [13, 14].  This market system is essential to guarantee security of supply and reduce the cost of electricity, but was designed for classical thermal plants, where unexpected deviations from schedule are rare.  The inherent intermittency of the wind prevents wind generators from participating in this market without being penalised with hefty fines.  The PIRP circumvents this problem using two devices. Firstly, improved and mandated weather forecasting technology is used to more accurately predict the wind speed, and hence the power produced by each wind farm, reducing the absolute deviations from schedule.  Secondly, fines are not levied on a daily basis; instead, the deviations from schedule are averaged over a month, reducing the total fines, and hence reducing the associated wind investment risk by providing improved predictability of pay-back periods [13-17].  Wind farms participating in the Program receive the Locational Marginal Price [14, 17].

The PIRP is interesting because it improves the market-compatibility of renewables, without making as large a electricity market-distortion as either FFIT or Renewables Obligation systems.  This is because, due to the nature of the operation of thermal plants, deviations from schedule are either predictable, due to scheduled maintenance, or rare, due to mechanical failure, and their market operation will be unaffected by the changed rules for wind power.  With the current level of wind penetration in California, no significant change to the operation of thermal generators has been required thus far, and so no large market distortion has occurred [13, 18].  However, as increasing levels of wind power come online, thermal plants will be pushed into the ancillary service market in order to maintain security of supply [19].  The PIRP could therefore be viewed as causing electricity market-distortion in the future.  In one regard, the PIRP actually reduces market-distortion because it prevents wind generators from gaming the electricity market as the Independent System Operator (CAISO) specifies their bid [19].

Market Compatibility

To discuss whether renewables can be made compatible with the market, the assumed definition of market compatibility is first given, followed by a discussion of the compatibility measurement metric used in this essay.  Data on several renewable energy sources is then presented for comparison with conventional technologies.  This is followed by a discussion whether the finite supply of fossil fuels and technical change will enable renewables to become compatible with the market without being granted special support.   Finally, the impact of a potential carbon tax is discussed.

A good or service is said to be market compatible if the cost of production is lower than the market clearing price, for competing goods or services of a similar type, such that a profit can be made by selling said good or service [20].  The previous section illustrated that economic support is given to renewables in a number of locations around the world.  This fact strongly suggests that renewables are not currently compatible with the market without being granted special support.    Therefore, a reasonable measure of market compatibility would be to analyse the cost of production of each generation technology [20].  Cost of generation is only a basic measure and does not take everything into account [21], such as grid stability and location of generation, which are different discussions entirely.  However, cost is seen as providing an appropriate basis of comparison suitable for the scope of this essay.

The cost of generation of electricity assumed in this essay is the unit cost (pence per kWh) including the capital cost of the generating plant, the fuel cost (if applicable), and operation and maintenance costs.  Figure 1 illustrates this cost for a selection of generation technologies according to a study performed in 2004 by the Royal Academy of Engineering (RAE) [21].  The cost of ‘large hydro’ electricity was derived from a separate source published in 2000 [22] and converted to GBP in 2004 to achieve parity between references, assuming an exchange rate of 0.7 EUR to GBP [23], and approximating inflation at 3% to align the Hydro cost estimates to the year 2004.   The data for other generation technologies given by H. Weis et al [22] is also comparable to the RAE data when given the same inflation treatment, and this tends to support the RAE estimates.

Figure 1: The relative costs of a selection of generation technologies in 2004 according to [21], and according to [22] for large hydroelectric plants.  Nuclear cost includes decommissioning.  All costs include capital, maintenance, and appropriate fuel costs.  All cost estimates assume 7.5% discount rate, except where stated.

The data illustrated in Figure 1, while not comprehensive, serves to indicate the relative cost of each generation technology and, with the exception of large hydro, it can be concluded that renewable technology is consistently more expensive than fossil fuel-based technologies.  The relative cost of each technology is also reflected in the levels of support given in the German EEG system, with more expensive renewable technologies being granted greater support [6].  It should be noted that the estimates illustrated for the cost of wind power in Figure 1 may be optimistic [24].

It is not all doom-and-gloom, however, as there are existing special cases of compatibility, and cases of almost-compatible renewable energy technologies.  As can be observed from Figure 1, for example, certain large hydro schemes are cost-compatible with other generation technologies [22].  This is reflected in the fact that support for large hydro plants in Germany is zero for new plants and at a low level for upgrade investment [6].

The main problems with investing in large hydro power plants in the developed countries are the large initial capital cost, and the fact that the most profitable sites have already been exploited [25, 26].  By contrast, in developing regions such as South America and Africa there is estimated be a large untapped profitable hydro resource [25] and the limitations are the infrastructure available to sell the produced electricity, and political instability.  Another issue is that financing is less favourable in these regions due to weak or inflation-prone currencies which increase the investment risk.  These factors make large hydro less appealing, but are not technically related to the electricity market.

There are also cases of near-market compatibility for renewables.  For example, the California PIRP is an optional scheme, and has been adopted by one-fifth of the installed wind capacity over a FFIT [14, 19].  As discussed, this Program could be thought of as not distorting the electricity market as it does not offer additional money up-front to wind generators.  Furthermore, there is also talk of integrating Solar Thermal power plants into the Californian PIRP [19], due to the recent developments in solar irradiance forecasting technology [11].  This could potentially be the first case of naturally compatible renewable energy, because peak output from Solar Thermal power stations mirrors peak demand, which occurs when temperatures and hence air conditioning load are at their highest [11, 12, 19].  Therefore, electricity from Solar Thermal plants could be sold at maximum price in the hour- and day-ahead electricity markets, while minimising the penalty for forecasting errors.  The youngest existing Solar Thermal plant in California sells electricity under 30-year FFIT contract, due to the high cost of generation, at 6.7 p/kWh [12] (USD to GBP 2004 [23]).  However, it is predicted that the exponential learning-curve associated with Solar Thermal technology may bring the cost of generation down to 3.4 p/kWh [12] (USD to GBP 2004 [23]) by 2020, which would result in market compatibility, even assuming unchanging fossil fuel generation costs.

Fossil fuels are, by their nature, a finite resource.  However, there is an important difference between resources and reserves: resources are the total remaining amount of a substance that is known to exist, but not necessarily recoverable with current economics and technology; reserves are the amount that is currently economically and technologically recoverable.  To some extent, therefore, reserves are replenishable.  In 2007, the World Energy Council (WEC) estimated that there is greater than 56 years of remaining gas reserves, at the current rate of consumption [25].  For nuclear power, the WEC estimated that there are at worst 85 remaining years of uranium resources at the current rate of consumption, with no recycling, and thousands of years of resources with recycling, although the New Scientist estimates that there are only 19 years of remaining uranium reserves [27].  However, thorium is an alternative nuclear fuel and is estimated to be more abundant than uranium [25].  The case for coal is more complicated.  The traditional view is that there is plenty of remaining coal and that it will last over a century, positioning coal as a fall-back fuel [25, 28].  This view is held by the WEC, who estimate that the remaining reserves of coal will last for more than 100 years at the current rate of consumption [25].  However, using Hubbert Linearisation, validated by predictions made for the UK and USA, the New Scientist estimates a global coal ‘peak’ as soon as 2025 [28].

The basic economics of supply and demand suggest that as supply reduces, with unchanged demand, the price increases [29].  Therefore, as the supply of fossil fuels reduces, the fuel price of coal, gas and nuclear power stations would be expected to increase.  Thus, the cost per kWh indicated in Figure 1 for coal, gas and nuclear power stations, would also increase.  Additionally, increasing population and economic growth can be expected to enhance the rate of depletion of the world’s natural resources [30].  Therefore, the previously given WEC estimates [25] for the years of remaining fossil fuel reserves at the ‘current rate of consumption’ appear optimistic.  Consequently, as fossil fuel reserves diminish, renewables will naturally become compatible with the electricity market in the future, regardless of their level of development.

Another important issue regarding the future market compatibility of renewables is technological development; however, it is a double-edged sword.  When making predictions about future technological progress, it is generally assumed that advancement will continue at the current rate and that the rate of the last x years will apply to the next x years [31].  By contrast, in many fields, the rate of development either follows exponential or power laws, of which the classic example is Moore’s Law [32].  Exponential technological development would affect the market compatibility of renewables directly, and there have been a number of recent technological developments in renewables which illustrate this [33].  The exponential technological development of renewables can therefore be expected to continue and accelerate, leading to cost reductions and efficiency improvements [34, 12].  Additionally, a new market-compatible renewable technology breakthrough may occur relatively soon and transform the energy market, as CCGT technology did in the past [35].

Conversely, technological developments in other fields can be expected to slow the rate of growth of energy consumption [36] and improve the efficiency of fossil fuels. For example, the energy efficiency of the US has improved seven-fold since 1900 [37].  However, fossil fuels are further along their learning curves than renewables, and so their relative rate of improvement would be expected to be less [38].  Moreover, technological development will also have the effect of transforming some fossil fuel resources into reserves [25].  On the other hand, while technological development may slow the rate of growth of world energy consumption, it does still grow with time [30] and this will have the effect of progressively making it harder for renewables to achieve market compatibility through technical innovation.

There are also two alternative ways in which renewables could become market-compatible without special support.  Firstly, natural compatibility would occur if consumers were willing to pay higher prices for renewably-sourced electricity.  This could perhaps be achieved through increased awareness of climate change and finite fossil resources.  Secondly, an indirect incentive could be given by penalising fossil fuels in order to raise their costs above those for renewables.  This could be achieved through a carbon tax.  The effect of charging carbon emissions at £30/ton on the price per kWh on the generation technologies illustrated in Figure 1 is given in Figure 2 [21, 22]:

Figure 2: Cost per kWh including a charge of £30/ton of carbon for a selection of energy sources [21, 22].  Only includes fuel emissions, no assessment of construction emissions.  Otherwise, the same considerations as Figure 1 apply.

It can be seen from Figure 2 that more renewable technologies become competitive as the price of carbon emissions increases.  However, this would have the knock-on effect of increasing energy prices so there would be an associated welfare loss.  On the other hand, in the longer term, the welfare gain due to reduced climate change may outweigh the higher energy costs [39].  Such a carbon tax may only be effective if implemented on a global scale, however, to prevent unfavourable competition from businesses in regions where no carbon tax is applied, and to ensure the most efficient allocation of carbon-saving resources [39].

Conclusion

Renewables are not currently compatible with the electricity market without special support, as can be observed from the fact that renewables are given economic incentives in a large number of countries.  However, large hydro is already market-compatible and there are cases of where near-market compatibility has been achieved without significant economic support, such as the Californian PIRP system which is designed to address both intermittency and cost considerations.  Solar Thermal technology may also soon reach market compatibility in the American Midwest due to the PIRP system, technological development, and its natural load-following ability.

Economic incentives are given to renewable technologies in order to encourage investment in the hope that market compatibility will eventually be achieved due to the development pressure which is created.  These economic incentives are essential to ensure that technological development of renewables occurs and that the world will be left with energy technologies that are sufficiently advanced when fossil fuels are depleted.  The exhaustion of natural resources will produce a point at which renewables become competitive due to the market forces of supply and demand, regardless of their level of development.  However, market compatibility would be ideally achieved before this happens and the fact that the technological progress of renewables is exponential rather than linear gives hope that this can be achieved.

References

[1]        OFGEM: “Renewables Obligation: Annual Report 2007-2008,” 3 March 2009, Accesssed: 22/4/09, http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/ Environment/RenewablObl/Documents1/Annual%20report%202007-08_Version%204.pdf

[2]        OFGEM: “Renewables Obligation: Guidance for Licensed Electricity Suppliers,” April 2009, Accessed 22/4/09: http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/ Sustainability/Environment/RenewablObl/Documents1/Supplier%20guidance%20%20_GB%20and%20NI_%202009%20-%20for%20publication.pdf

[3]        OFGEM: “Renewables Obligation: Guidance for generators over 50kW” April 2009, Accessed 22/4/09. http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/ Environment/RenewablObl/Documents1/Large%20Gen%20Guidance%202009%20-%20for%20publication.pdf

[4]        A. Held, M. Ragwitz: “RE Policy in Europe,” Refocus, November/December 2006, pp. 42-47.

[5]        J. P. M. Sijm: “The Performance of Feed-in Tariffs to Promote Renewable Electricity in European Countries,” Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, November 2002.

[6]        “EEG – The Renewable Energy Sources Act The success story of sustainable policies for Germany,” Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Germany, April 2007.

[7]        M. Robinson: “Role of Balancing Markets in Wind Integration,” Power Systems Conference and Exposition, 2006, pp. 232 – 233.

[8]        Renewable Energy Credits http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/ Renewables/FAQs/05REcertificates.htm California Public Utilities Commission, Accessed 22/4/09, Last Updated: 23/3/2009.

[9]        Feed-In Tariffs http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/Renewables/hot/ feedintariffs.htm California Public Utilities Commission, Accessed 22/4/09, Last Updated: 20/1/2009.

[10]      California Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency: http://www.dsireusa.org/ library/includes/map2.cfm?CurrentPageID=1&State=CA&RE=1&EE=1, Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency, NC State University, Accessed 22/4/09.

[11]      M. Wittmann, H. Breitkreuz, M. Schroedter-Homscheidt, M. Eck: “Case Studies on the Use of Solar Irradiance Forecast for Optimised Operation Strategies of Solar Thermal Power Plants,” IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2008, pp. 18-27.

[12]      E. H. M. van Voorthuysen: “The promising perspective of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP),” International Conference on Future Power Systems, 2005, pp. 1-7.

[13]      CAISO: “Integration of Renewable Resources Report,” Nov. 2007, http://www.caiso.com/1ca5/1ca5a7a026270.pdf. Accessed: 6/4/09.

[14]      D. L. Hawkins, J. Blatchford, Y. V. Makarov: “Wind Integration Issues and Solutions in California,” IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2007, pp. 1-9.

[15]      P. Asmus: “Intermittency Solutions,” refocus, March/April 2003.

[16]      P. Asmus: “How California Hopes to Manage the Intermittency of Wind Power,” The Electricity Journal, 2003.

[17]      C. L. Anderson, J. B. Cardell: “Reducing the Variability of Wind Power Generation for Participation in Day Ahead Electricity Markets,” Proceedings of the 41^st Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2008.

[18]      ESB National Grid: “Impact of Wind Power Generation in Ireland on the Operation of Conventional Plant and the Economic Implications,” February 2004.

[19]      Exeter Associates, Inc: “Review of International Experience Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Generation,” California Energy Commission, PIER Project Report, April 2007.

[20]      D. Kirschen & G. Strbac: “Fundamentals of Power System Economics,” John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2004, ISBN: 0-470-84572-4, pp. 1-104.

[21]      PB Power: “The Cost of Generating Electricity,” Royal Academy of Engineering, March 2004.

[22]      H. Weis, M. Dupy, M. Baril, M. Barlow, M. Cambi, M. Genier, J-P. Germeau, C. Madureira, G. Schiller, A. Tahull: “The cost of hydroelectricity,” Union of the Electricity Industry, EURELECTRIC, 2000.

[23]      Yahoo! Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/currency-converter?amt=1& from=USD&to=XCD#from=EUR;to=GBP;amt=1.0001 Historical EUR/USD to GBP value on 1 January 2004, Date Accessed: 23/4/09.

[24]      C. Gibson: “Risk Management in the ESI,” Former director of National Grid, Power Systems Engineering and Economics, Lecture, The University of Edinburgh, Attended: 19/3/2009.

[25]      World Energy Council: “2007 Survey of Energy Resources.”

[26]      “Beyond Three Gorges in China,” International Water Power and Dam Construction, January 10, 2007, Accessed 21/4/09: http://www.waterpowermagazine.com/story.asp?storyCode=2041318

[27]      D. Cohen: “Earth’s natural wealth: an audit,” New Scientist, Issue 2605, 23 May 2007, pp. 34-41.

[28]      D. Strahan: “Coal: Bleak outlook for the black stuff,” New Scientist, 19 January 2008, Issue 2631.

[29]      D. Kirschen & G. Strbac: “Fundamentals of Power System Economics,” John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2004, ISBN: 0-470-84572-4, pp. 12-44.

[30]      N. Stern: “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review,” Cambridge University Press, 2007, ISBN: 9780521700801, pp. 184.

[31]      R. Kurzweil: “Human life: The next generation,” New Scientist, 24 September 2005, Issue 2418.

[32]      G. E. Moore: “Cramming more components onto integrated circuits,” Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965.

[33]      E. A. G. Webster: “Renewable Generation and Ancilliary Services – voltage support and reactive power,” The University of Edinburgh, Power Systems Engineering and Economics Essay Assignment 1, 11 May 2009.

[34]      N. Stern: “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review,” Cambridge University Press, 2007, ISBN: 9780521700801, pp. 350.

[35]      J. Bialek: “Power Systems Engineering and Economics,” The University of Edinburgh, Lecture Course, Attended: January – March 2009.

[36]      N. Stern: “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review,” Cambridge University Press, 2007, ISBN: 9780521700801, pp. 347.

[37]      N. Stern: “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review,” Cambridge University Press, 2007, ISBN: 9780521700801, pp. 185.

[38]      N. Stern: “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review,” Cambridge University Press, 2007, ISBN: 9780521700801, pp. 226.

[39]      N. Stern: “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review,” Cambridge University Press, 2007, ISBN: 9780521700801, pp. i-xxvii.

Murphy’s Laws of Combat

Found these on an old PC’s harddrive from ages ago.  Thought I would share:

• If the enemy is in range, so are you.
• Incoming fire has the right of way.
• Don’t look conspicuous — it draws fire.
• There is always a way.
• The easy way is always mined.
• Try to look unimportant — they may be low on ammo.
• Professionals are predictable, it’s the amateurs that are dangerous.
• The enemy invariably attacks on two occasions:

1. When you’re ready for them.
2. When you’re not ready for them.

• Teamwork is essential — it gives them someone else to shoot at.
• If you can’t remember, the claymore is pointed at you.
• The enemy diversion you have been ignoring will be the main attack.
• A “sucking chest wound” is nature’s way of telling you to slow down.
• If your attack is going well, you have walked into an ambush.
• Never draw fire, it irritates everyone around you.
• Anything you do can get you shot, including nothing.
• Make it tough enough for the enemy to get in and you won’t be able to get out.
• Never share a foxhole with anyone braver than yourself.
• If you are short of everything but the enemy, you are in a combat zone.
• When you have secured an area, don’t forget to tell the enemy.
• Never forget that your weapon is made by the lowest bidder.
• “Friendly Fire” isn’t
• Automatic Weapons aren’t.

The three reasons why anyone would vote for McCain

1) They’re rich & selfish and would benefit under McCain’s tax cut plan for the wealthiest 2% of Americans.  I’m sorry to break it to you, but the rest of the world has a similar system to Obama’s tax plan.  It has been found to benefit society as a whole.

If they think that McCain’s plan will be better for the economy then see point 2.  Giving the people most likely to spend money (the middle class) a tax break will do more for the economy.  Why? Well what do you think they are going to do with the tax break money? Spend it on goods – so yes, that benefits Joe the plumber and small business owners more than a tax cut will.

Economies are built from the ground up, if you don’t know that, see point 2.

2) They’re retarded or they don’t fully understand both the candidates stance on issues.  These are the people who vote the same way every time without thinking for themselves.

Reading Obama’s books should be a quick remedy to this problem if you’re outraged at being called retarded.  If you can’t bring yourself to read his books, or rather can’t, then I’m afraid there’s no helping you.

Only exception would be to vote Republican if you are strongly pro-life.  Even so, neither candidate is going to overthrow Roe vs. Wade.  Wake up.

3) They’re racist.

The Dark Knight Piracy? Hollywood only has themselves to blame.

I was staggered to learn a few weeks ago that arguably the most anticipated movie of the summer is not going to have a worldwide simultaneous release.  Iron Man had one, but not The Dark Knight?  Something is wrong with that.  There is just no excuse for not having a worldwide release.

I would expect some significant piracy of TDK to take place all over Europe in the week preceding its release here.  I also expect that Hollywood will come out and make some sort of anti piracy statement condemning this inevitable action. In the age of the internet they only have themselves to blame.  Hollywood have wake up to the realities of how the internet works.

I even know of people who own yearly cinema passes, so effectively have cinema for free, pirate movies if the release delay is too long.  If the release had been worldwide, they would have gone to the cinema and maybe brought a friend who would have directly paid to see it.  Hollywood are throwing away revenue with this policy.

TV shows are another great example.  Sometimes the delay between a show airing in the USA to airing in the UK is as much as a whole year.  People can, say, watch the first season of a TV show, and then realise that they have to wait a whole year to see what happened, so they go on the internet and find that they can download the second season right away.  Is there any reason why they wouldn’t do that?  No.  It also just so happens that the only way to do this is by using BitTorrent like programs, and there is actually no way to PAY for a TV show, even if one wanted to – which a lot of people would actually do, if they could.  The vast majority of people on BitTorrent are getting TV shows because they can’t get them any other way when they want to get them.  If you actually looked at the statistics of the users of popular BitTorrent sites for TV shows, I bet you would find the majority of the users are European, downloading the latest Lost or CSI. (Also, note, you shouldn’t be able to look at the statistics for BitTorrent sites, and for good reason. )

A funny thing actually happened with Battlestar Galactica during its fourth season.  The episode “The Hub” actually aired in the UK on SkyOne before it aired in America.  This was due to Sci-Fi Channel going on a break and SkyOne not getting the memo.  As a result this episode was hugely pirated in the USA.  I don’t think you could find a better example than that.

I’m not saying that piracy is correct, but if companies want to stamp it out, they have to understand the reason why it occurs.  Staggered release of media is a huge reason for it.  People want to see the latest episodes of their favourite TV shows as soon as they can.  The internet makes this possible. Wake the fuck up.

Renewable Energy and Climate Change

There’s an article on digg today about the world’s largest wind turbine order. I felt it was time to educate some people about the cold hard facts of energy generation.  There are a lot of environmental nutcases, whom have a point which I do agree with, but have no clue about what the correct solution is.  Every time they see proposals for wind farms and solar power stations they automatically think that those are the solutions.  A mob mentality, if you will.  I decided to try and educate them with my digg comment:

When will people realise that 1MW from wind energy is not the same as 1MW from Nuclear or Coal? For every MW of Wind, you need a MW of always on capacity elsewhere in the grid. If you don’t, there is going to be rolling blackouts and brownouts whenever the wind doesn’t blow. People often don’t realise that there is currently NO WAY to STORE electrical energy. Pump Hydro can do it, but is only possible in a limited number of locations. Whichever way you look at it, the conclusion is that we need nuclear power.

You would not argue with a Quantum Physicist about Quantum Physics if you were not one yourself, so why argue with an Electrical Engineer?  But people do…

You can read the full comments here. I’ll try and expand some of my additional comments and replies below.

A lot of people do not understand that there is NO WAY TO STORE ELECTRICAL POWER at sufficient level for utilisation in a grid system.  I laugh at people’s ignorance when they suggest battery storage.

Having no single source of power is definitely a good thing. However, you can pretty much class all renewables, bar large hydo, as unstable sources of supply. The theoretical limit to renewable generation capacity is 20-30% with our current grid architecture. That’s a hard physical fact.

Someone made a suggestion to go to a completely decentralised grid system.  It is a good suggestion, however, it would require a completely new power infrastructure to be constructed with it’s own cost and environmental impact.  Plus the technology isn’t quite there yet.  I’ve also read some models suggesting that a fully decentralised system wastes a large amount of generating capacity which it requires to be fully robust and stable.

Fundamentally, huge capital investments with no payback potential (such as building a power station does – at least you can sell the electricity you produce) are required to completely change the national energy grid system. No one’s going to invest in infrastructure out of their own choice in a privatised energy market.

Even if you do, you’ll still suffer instability in a completely decentralised system because there are different types of load demand. A large proportion of electrical power goes into supplying heavy industry, which has completely different load characteristics than home users.  The energy you get from wind is not the same as you get from a coal, oil, gas, or nuclear power station.

For some further reading on this matter, look up these terms: Base Load, Mid Load, and Peak Load.

Science is not a Religion

I recently got so riled up after reading an article in my Student Newspaper that implied that I wrote them a letter.  Their article implied that Science was a belief based and had some similarity with Religion.  This is entirely incorrect.

They didn’t publish my letter, nor any other letters disagreeing with their paper.  They published a whole weeks paper entitled “The God Issue”, but only had one anti-religious article.  Such a biased rag, I will never read it again. The letter is below:

Science is not a religion, nor is it in any way faith based.

The scientific method makes one assumption: the Universe obeys a set of rules. If the Universe follows these rules, ten those rules can be determined from observing the way Universe behaves. If the Universe obeys the rules, then the rules must be revealed by that behaviour.

Science is not a database of knowledge – it’s a method of finding knowledge: observe, hypothesise, predict, experiment/observe, revise. Science is also provisional as it is always open to improvement and is constantly being revised.

You do not have any respectable physicists unquestioningly believing in Newtonian Dynamics.  Why? Because it has been superseded by Relativity.  This is because Relativity is a more accurate model of observed effects, and has been repeatedly confirmed through observation. Even Relativity cannot explain everything, so physicists will continue questioning it – but they will be using the scientific method, described above, to do so.

Battlestar and Bob Dylan

I was recently re-watching the season three finale in preparation for the première of season four of Battlestar Galactica. If you don’t already watch it – you should!

I was thinking about the final scene and the connections between the lyrics and the past events of BSG, with a possible reference to the future:

“There’s too much confusion, I can’t get no relief” is fairly obviously connected to the final four learning that they are Cylons. Imagine how you would feel if you woke up one day and realised you were a machine?

“Two riders were approaching,” fairly obviously referring to the two Vipers flown by Starbuck and Apollo.

“There are many here among us,” a reference to cylons within the fleet.

“No reason to get excited,” say the lyrics; “It’s really me,” says Starbuck – Uncanny.

Therefore the Theif in the song would be Starbuck leaving the Joker as Apollo.

“The wind began to howl” – The Cylons showing up.

“Feel that life is but a joke,” – which is Starbuck’s general attitude throughout the whole show.

“You and I we’ve been through that” – Alluding to their past (and current?) romantic relationship.

“And this is not our fate” – Apparently shutting the door.

Before apparently opening it again with: “Lets not talk falsely now – the hour is getting late,” meaning lets hook up before it’s over and/or we die.

Bob Dylan – All Along the Watchtower:

“There must be some way out of here,” said the joker to the thief,
“There’s too much confusion, I can’t get no relief.
Businessmen, they drink my wine, plowmen dig my earth,
None of them along the line know what any of it is worth.”

“No reason to get excited,” the thief, he kindly spoke,
“There are many here among us who feel that life is but a joke.
But you and I, we’ve been through that, and this is not our fate,
So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late.”

All along the watchtower, princes kept the view
While all the women came and went, barefoot servants, too.

Outside in the distance a wildcat did growl,
Two riders were approaching, the wind began to howl.

Al Gore’s New Climate Change Presentation

If you’re a climate change sceptic, check out Al Gore’s new presentation (link below). If after watching it, you’re still unconvinced, do some reading about the subject until you realise that Al Gore is in fact correct.

TED Talks, New Thinking on the Climate Crisis, Al Gore